“As a % of GDP, the deficit, govt outlays and consumption are off the charts. The savings rate is <4%. The internet age began w/ shrinking govt outlays and increasing investment. The savings rate fell only after the govt ran a surplus which forced the private sector to dis-save.”
-Drunk on Cnbc
So, I wrote a bit yesterday about this interview and how interesting I thought it was. If you look at the chart below, it echoes his fear of government intervention in the form of deficit spending will lead to less productivity over time.
Kind of makes me think about they Why’s of socialism. If there is no incentive, then why innovate?
These charts go back from 95-2000 during the internet boom and where the spending was in the WH leading into that historic innovation trail.
OH VOLATILITY, MY VOLATILITY
“Oh Captain, my Captain! Our fearful trip is done. The ship has weathered every rack, the prize we sought is won.
-Walt Whitman “Oh Captain, My Captain”
Just where has the VOL gone? Yesterday’s range was so tight in SPY that I felt it demanded a bit of an investigation.
Below is the Daily Range/Daily Close since 2016.
Clearly this chart is showing “quiet” market. Yesterdays close was in the 5% for daily range/daily close. So, when looking for Mr. Vol, he clearly has paced up for vactation.
This chart below shows the same info, but for the rally period we are currently residing in (our gates). And that is from 10/30/23 to Current prices. Take a look:
Yesterday’s reading registered as the 6th tightest range/close during this rally. Begs the question…is a grind higher possible from here?
Keep an eye on it.
DAILY NOTES
Only about 5 weeks out from the June Expiry that will monetize the FXI trade from a few months ago. Sold Puts and Put Spreads in it.
In a rather mindblowing read about games and LLM’s a new article from Quanta is worth reading.
I think about the Greek Temptress Siren, half bird, half women, that runs ships ashore as they follow her sweet voice. I kind of feel this way with the trade right now. The temptation is there, but I still think its best to tie youself to the mast for the next few sessions at least.
Trade Em Well Today